Ep. 38 - SOFR, Supply, and Distress: What Multifamily Investors Need to Know Going into 2026
Fri Dec 26 2025
As 2025 comes to a close, multifamily investors are facing a market defined by shifting interest rates, slowing construction, and emerging distress—especially across the Sun Belt.
In this episode of Kiss My Assets, Kyle Macdonald and Neighborhood Ventures CEO Jason Manwaring break down what's happening beneath the surface of the Phoenix multifamily market. They discuss SOFR versus the 10-year Treasury, why rate cuts haven't translated to lower long-term borrowing costs, and how government debt is influencing the bond market.
The conversation also examines two notable Phoenix deals—a high-profile office-to-multifamily conversion at Central and Camelback and a $100M ground-up development breaking ground despite a sharp drop in permits. Finally, they explore why short-term softness in Sun Belt markets may be creating long-term opportunity for disciplined investors heading into 2026.
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As 2025 comes to a close, multifamily investors are facing a market defined by shifting interest rates, slowing construction, and emerging distress—especially across the Sun Belt. In this episode of Kiss My Assets, Kyle Macdonald and Neighborhood Ventures CEO Jason Manwaring break down what's happening beneath the surface of the Phoenix multifamily market. They discuss SOFR versus the 10-year Treasury, why rate cuts haven't translated to lower long-term borrowing costs, and how government debt is influencing the bond market. The conversation also examines two notable Phoenix deals—a high-profile office-to-multifamily conversion at Central and Camelback and a $100M ground-up development breaking ground despite a sharp drop in permits. Finally, they explore why short-term softness in Sun Belt markets may be creating long-term opportunity for disciplined investors heading into 2026.