Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio

Despite the drumbeat of crash talk, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Today’s housing market isn’t in freefall; it’s recalibrating. Cara Lavender, senior research manager at John Burns Research and Consulting, joins Host Carol Morgan on the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast to discuss where the housing market stands today and what builders and developers should expect as 2026 progresses. A Housing Market in Recalibration, Not Crisis Despite ongoing headlines predicting a housing crash, recent data tells a very different story. The current market environment is highly segmented, with affordability continuing to shape outcomes. First-time buyers remain constrained, while move-up and luxury segments are seeing more consistent activity. Rising inventory and softening prices reflect a recalibration, not systemic weakness. “We’re still in a slow market, but we’re seeing stabilization in a lot of areas,” Lavender said. “In no sense of the word are we seeing that we’re on the verge of a “crash” when we look at all the data.” John Burns Research and Consulting forecasts average mortgage rates at around 6.6%, driven by normalization in the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate. While builders have been able to offset higher rates through aggressive buydowns, easing rates should provide more upside on the resale side, where demand has been more sensitive to borrowing costs. Nationally, the housing market remains structurally undersupplied by approximately 1.1 million homes, even as near-term supply has loosened across both new and resale markets. In metro Atlanta, resale supply currently sits around 4.3 months, a range traditionally considered healthy. How Affordability Is Shaping Buyer Behavior Affordability is a key factor in current market conditions, particularly as taxes and insurance continue to add pressure to monthly payments. Entry-level buyers remain highly payment-sensitive, while move-up buyers are increasingly returning to the market. “This is not a build-it-and-they-will-come market anymore,” she said. “Success is going to come from tightly refined offerings and really understanding who the buyer is in your market.” As resale sellers adjust pricing expectations, many move-up buyers—often sitting on significant equity—are finally able to make their next move. Buyers are making trade-offs, prioritizing efficiency and functionality over excess space, mirroring builders’ efforts to value-engineer floor plans and control costs. Why Move-In-Ready Homes Are Winning Buyer preference for move-in-ready homes remains strong. According to John Burns’ research surveys, nearly 40% of resale listings require significant repairs or updates. “People don’t want to put a new roof on. They don’t want to redo flooring or kitchens,” Lavender said. “If sellers aren’t willing to bring the price down, they’re going to have to offer repairs or credits.” Homes that are well-located, competitively priced and turnkey continue to attract strong demand, while properties requiring work face longer marketing times and tougher negotiations. Build-to-Rent & the Changing Path to Homeownership As affordability challenges continue to delay first-time homeownership, build-to-rent (BTR) communities are playing an increasingly important role in the Atlanta housing market. These communities provide a longer-term rental solution for households that want the benefits of single-family living but are not yet ready or able to buy. Build-to-rent offers access to detached homes, private outdoor space and community amenities at a more attainable monthly cost, effectively bridging the gap between traditional apartments and homeownership. A “Boring” 2026 Outlook Looking ahead, John Burns Research and Consulting forecasts a gradual recovery in 2026, following several years of volatility across both new home and resale markets. While production levels and pricing are still expected to soften modestly in the near term, those declines are projected to be less severe than what the industry experienced throughout 2025. Lavender said, “Our 2026 forecast is kind of boring—and that’s a good thing.” Tune in to the full episode to hear data-driven insights on today’s housing market, affordability trends and what builders and developers can expect in 2026. Learn more about John Burns Research and Consulting at https://JBREC.com/. About John Burns Research and Consulting John Burns Research and Consulting provides data-driven insights across every housing sector, including new home construction, resale, single-family rental and build-to-rent. It helps companies make informed decisions and mitigate risk in order to identify opportunities in a complex market. From M&A projects to consumer surveys, the firm covers every aspect of the housing industry. Podcast Thanks Thank you to Denim Marketing for sponsoring Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio. Known as a trendsetter, Denim Marketing has been blogging since 2006 and podcasting since 2011. Contact them when you need quality, original content for social media, public relations, blogging, email marketing and promotions. A comfortable fit for companies of all shapes and sizes, Denim Marketing understands marketing strategies are not one-size-fits-all. The agency works with your company to create a perfectly tailored marketing strategy that will suit your needs and niche. Try Denim Marketing on for size by calling 770-383-3360 or by visiting www.DenimMarketing.com. About Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio, presented by Denim Marketing, highlights the movers and shakers in the Atlanta real estate industry – the home builders, developers, Realtors and suppliers working to provide the American dream for Atlantans. For more information on how you can be featured as a guest, contact Denim Marketing at 770-383-3360 or fill out the Atlanta Real Estate Forum contact form. Subscribe to the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast on iTunes, and if you like this week’s show, be sure to rate it. Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio was recently honored on FeedSpot’s Top 100 Atlanta Podcasts, ranking 16th overall and number one out of all ranked real estate podcasts. The post Cara Lavender: The Housing Market Isn’t Crashing appeared first on Atlanta Real Estate Forum.