Ep.119 | The Future of Private Lending in Canada (AI, Renewals, Regulation & Risk)
Wed Feb 04 2026
In Episode 119 of the Canadian Private Lenders Podcast, Ryan and Neal break down how mortgage renewals, higher rates, AI, open banking, fraud controls, and regulation are reshaping private and alternative lending across Canada. They explain why more borrowers are moving into private lending, how underwriting is evolving, and what lenders, brokers, and investors need to understand as they head into 2025–2026.
This episode covers:
• The mortgage renewal wave and rising payment shock
• Why the private lending market share is growing
• AI’s real role in underwriting and fraud detection
• Regulation, MICs, and institutional capital
• Construction financing and market volatility
• What the future borrower actually looks like
Ideal for mortgage brokers, private lenders, real estate investors, and anyone following Canadian housing and credit markets.
Show Chapters:
00:29 – Welcome to Episode 119
05:09 – What does the future of private lending look like?
05:48 – Why Canada’s banking system is vulnerable to disruption
06:15 – Alternative lending shifts beyond bad credit
07:39 – Traditional mortgages are becoming commoditized
08:09 – Will big banks acquire private lenders?
09:40 – Mortgage renewals are pushing borrowers into private lending
11:24 – Why high-LTV private lending is disappearing
12:42 – Renewal payment shock explained
15:29 – Private lending now makes up ~20% of Ontario mortgages
16:51 – Volatility as the engine of private lending growth
17:26 – Who the future private lending borrower is
19:11 – Private lending is a timing tool, not a credit issue
20:28 – Regulation is coming — what changes first
21:14 – FSRA, disclosures, and broker responsibility
25:39 – MICs, capital, and transparency expectations
28:43 – Will fraud reduction push borrowers into private lending?
31:14 – How AI actually fits into underwriting
32:20 – The end of “trust-me” lending
33:35 – Construction financing opportunities for private lenders
37:13 – Three future scenarios for private lending in Canada
39:11 – Final takeaways for lenders, brokers, and investors
39:58 – Closing remarks and compliance disclaimer
Resources:
Keystone Capital Group
CPLP Instagram: @cplpodcast
Keystone Instagram: @keycapgroup
Find Neal On:
Instagram: @neal.andreino
LinkedIn: Neal Andreino
Find Ryan on:
LinkedIn: Ryan MacNeil
E-mail: ryan@keycap.ca
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In Episode 119 of the Canadian Private Lenders Podcast, Ryan and Neal break down how mortgage renewals, higher rates, AI, open banking, fraud controls, and regulation are reshaping private and alternative lending across Canada. They explain why more borrowers are moving into private lending, how underwriting is evolving, and what lenders, brokers, and investors need to understand as they head into 2025–2026. This episode covers: • The mortgage renewal wave and rising payment shock • Why the private lending market share is growing • AI’s real role in underwriting and fraud detection • Regulation, MICs, and institutional capital • Construction financing and market volatility • What the future borrower actually looks like Ideal for mortgage brokers, private lenders, real estate investors, and anyone following Canadian housing and credit markets. Show Chapters: 00:29 – Welcome to Episode 119 05:09 – What does the future of private lending look like? 05:48 – Why Canada’s banking system is vulnerable to disruption 06:15 – Alternative lending shifts beyond bad credit 07:39 – Traditional mortgages are becoming commoditized 08:09 – Will big banks acquire private lenders? 09:40 – Mortgage renewals are pushing borrowers into private lending 11:24 – Why high-LTV private lending is disappearing 12:42 – Renewal payment shock explained 15:29 – Private lending now makes up ~20% of Ontario mortgages 16:51 – Volatility as the engine of private lending growth 17:26 – Who the future private lending borrower is 19:11 – Private lending is a timing tool, not a credit issue 20:28 – Regulation is coming — what changes first 21:14 – FSRA, disclosures, and broker responsibility 25:39 – MICs, capital, and transparency expectations 28:43 – Will fraud reduction push borrowers into private lending? 31:14 – How AI actually fits into underwriting 32:20 – The end of “trust-me” lending 33:35 – Construction financing opportunities for private lenders 37:13 – Three future scenarios for private lending in Canada 39:11 – Final takeaways for lenders, brokers, and investors 39:58 – Closing remarks and compliance disclaimer Resources: Keystone Capital Group CPLP Instagram: @cplpodcast Keystone Instagram: @keycapgroup Find Neal On: Instagram: @neal.andreino LinkedIn: Neal Andreino Find Ryan on: LinkedIn: Ryan MacNeil E-mail: ryan@keycap.ca