The 20% Truth: AIâs Real Impact on Developer Productivity | Simon Obstbaum (Stanford, Crunchyroll)
Sat Jun 21 2025
Everyone says AI will 10x your dev team. But what does the data actually say?In this episode of Fractional, Simon ObstbaumâStanford researcher and former CTO of Crunchyrollâwalks us through one of the most grounded conversations on developer productivity with AI youâll hear.Simonâs team at Stanford built a model trained on expert code reviews to study the actual impact of AI coding tools. What they found: a 20% productivity uplift at bestâwith wide variance depending on language, codebase complexity, and context.We discuss:⢠What productivity really means in software engineering⢠Why legacy codebases often get worse with AI⢠How LLMs quietly replace pair programming for junior devs⢠What makes engineering teams more effective in realityânot theory⢠Lessons from building Crunchyrollâs global tech orgThis isnât an AI hypefest. Itâs a reality check.đ§Ş Participate in Stanfordâs researchđ¤ Connect with Simonđ Learn how Swarm helps enterprises adopt AIđ Fractional by Swarm
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Everyone says AI will 10x your dev team. But what does the data actually say?In this episode of Fractional, Simon ObstbaumâStanford researcher and former CTO of Crunchyrollâwalks us through one of the most grounded conversations on developer productivity with AI youâll hear.Simonâs team at Stanford built a model trained on expert code reviews to study the actual impact of AI coding tools. What they found: a 20% productivity uplift at bestâwith wide variance depending on language, codebase complexity, and context.We discuss:⢠What productivity really means in software engineering⢠Why legacy codebases often get worse with AI⢠How LLMs quietly replace pair programming for junior devs⢠What makes engineering teams more effective in realityânot theory⢠Lessons from building Crunchyrollâs global tech orgThis isnât an AI hypefest. Itâs a reality check.đ§Ş Participate in Stanfordâs researchđ¤ Connect with Simonđ Learn how Swarm helps enterprises adopt AIđ Fractional by Swarm