AppLovin Bull vs. Bear Case: What Operators Know That Investors Don't
Tue Dec 30 2025
AppLovin just crossed $250 billion in market cap. Stock up 127% YTD. EBITDA margins at 82%. Is this the beginning—or the top?
We assembled the most qualified panel possible to break it down: an operator running millions through AppLovin's platform, a gaming-focused financial analyst, and an institutional investor who's seen these cycles before.
What emerged isn't your typical bull-bear debate. It's a breakdown of how dominance actually works in ad tech—and what could break it.
IN THIS EPISODE
→ Why AppLovin doesn't need to be better than competitors—just 95% as good
→ The MAX/Axon lock-in that keeps publishers captive
→ E-commerce expansion: AppLovin is beating Google on Android
→ The SEC investigation and deplatforming risk (how worried should you be?)
→ What one operator's portfolio data reveals about where the cracks are forming
→ Each panelist's prediction for AppLovin in 2026
SPEAKERS
Josh Chandley — President & CEO, WildCard Games
Matthew Kanterman, CFA — Director of Research, Blue River Financial Group
Brian Peganoff — Former TMT Investor, Founder Timber Advisors
Joseph Kim — CEO, Lila Games
TIMESTAMPS
[00:00] Introduction & Panel Overview
[01:22] AppLovin Financial Recap: 127% YTD, 82% Margins
[04:52] Valuation Analysis: Is Growth Priced In?
[07:15] The Bull Case: Infrastructure Lock-In
[10:30] How MAX & Axon Create Publisher Dependency
[15:45] E-Commerce Expansion: Beating Google on Android
[22:10] Why Meta & Google Can't Compete on iOS
[28:40] The Bear Case: Five Risks
[35:20] SEC Investigation & Deplatforming Risk
[42:15] The Infrastructure Risk Nobody Discusses
[48:30] Competitive Landscape: Unity, Moloco, Meta
[58:20] Connected TV: Wild Card or Dead End?
[1:05:40] Panel Predictions for 2026
[1:15:30] Key Takeaways
LINKS
Newsletter: https://www.gamemakers.com
Full article: https://www.gamemakers.com/p/applovin-bull-bear-case
Pixels & Profits is a GameMakers series covering the business and investing side of the gaming industry.
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AppLovin just crossed $250 billion in market cap. Stock up 127% YTD. EBITDA margins at 82%. Is this the beginning—or the top? We assembled the most qualified panel possible to break it down: an operator running millions through AppLovin's platform, a gaming-focused financial analyst, and an institutional investor who's seen these cycles before. What emerged isn't your typical bull-bear debate. It's a breakdown of how dominance actually works in ad tech—and what could break it. IN THIS EPISODE → Why AppLovin doesn't need to be better than competitors—just 95% as good → The MAX/Axon lock-in that keeps publishers captive → E-commerce expansion: AppLovin is beating Google on Android → The SEC investigation and deplatforming risk (how worried should you be?) → What one operator's portfolio data reveals about where the cracks are forming → Each panelist's prediction for AppLovin in 2026 SPEAKERS Josh Chandley — President & CEO, WildCard Games Matthew Kanterman, CFA — Director of Research, Blue River Financial Group Brian Peganoff — Former TMT Investor, Founder Timber Advisors Joseph Kim — CEO, Lila Games TIMESTAMPS [00:00] Introduction & Panel Overview [01:22] AppLovin Financial Recap: 127% YTD, 82% Margins [04:52] Valuation Analysis: Is Growth Priced In? [07:15] The Bull Case: Infrastructure Lock-In [10:30] How MAX & Axon Create Publisher Dependency [15:45] E-Commerce Expansion: Beating Google on Android [22:10] Why Meta & Google Can't Compete on iOS [28:40] The Bear Case: Five Risks [35:20] SEC Investigation & Deplatforming Risk [42:15] The Infrastructure Risk Nobody Discusses [48:30] Competitive Landscape: Unity, Moloco, Meta [58:20] Connected TV: Wild Card or Dead End? [1:05:40] Panel Predictions for 2026 [1:15:30] Key Takeaways LINKS Newsletter: https://www.gamemakers.com Full article: https://www.gamemakers.com/p/applovin-bull-bear-case Pixels & Profits is a GameMakers series covering the business and investing side of the gaming industry.