Discipline vs Mania: Seth Cogswell on 1999 Parallels, AI Excess, and Why Risk Is Being Ignored
Thu Feb 05 2026
In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to break down why today’s market feels increasingly speculative and why disciplined investing is being left behind.
From meme-style factor leadership and zombie-company outperformance to extreme concentration and AI spending risk, Cogswell explains why chasing returns tends to end the same way and how investors can position for when the cycle turns.
In this episode:
– Why the last eight months looked like a speculative outlier
– How high volatility and low quality leadership distorts portfolios
– How AI spending can flip from narrative to accountability
– Where discipline fits when clients still want growth exposure
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#stockmarket #MarketBubble #AI #RiskManagement #PortfolioConstruction #Macro #Investing
Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.
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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to break down why today’s market feels increasingly speculative and why disciplined investing is being left behind. From meme-style factor leadership and zombie-company outperformance to extreme concentration and AI spending risk, Cogswell explains why chasing returns tends to end the same way and how investors can position for when the cycle turns. In this episode: – Why the last eight months looked like a speculative outlier – How high volatility and low quality leadership distorts portfolios – How AI spending can flip from narrative to accountability – Where discipline fits when clients still want growth exposure Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise. #stockmarket #MarketBubble #AI #RiskManagement #PortfolioConstruction #Macro #Investing Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show