February 6th, 2026 | Has the US dollar become too weak? GLP-1 drugs; what’s the concern? Is the US housing market becoming a buyers market? How would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement? & More
Sat Feb 07 2026
Has the US dollar become too weak?
It can be difficult to filter through the headlines that make it appear that the dollar has dropped and lost 50% of its value and is getting close to collapse as some doom and gloom people would want you to believe. The truth is since January 2025; the dollar has been down about 10% against other major currencies. Keep in mind that it fluctuates every day, every hour, and every minute. This is normal, but the headlines can be very scary and it's also important to understand that over the last five years the dollar index has been up about 7%. There are pros and cons to a weak dollar. If you’re planning on traveling to Europe or some other foreign country, hotels and other items will cost you more when the dollar weakens since our dollar buys less. Also, the price of foreign cars and trucks will increase because again a dollar buys less. But the other side of the coin is that people from other parts of the world can now come to the United States and spend money in our economy since their currency now goes further. Also, many of our products that we export will be less expensive so exports should increase while our imports decrease, reducing our trade deficit. Lower interest rates can cause our dollar to fall, but a strong economy can help counterbalance that decline. Will there be a default on the dollar? The chances of that happening are extremely low for many reasons. The US dollar is still the dominant global reserve currency, which adds strength to the dollar. It is also understood that yes, we do have high debt, but also if needed, the US can print dollars to pay that debt. Looking forward to 2026, there’s a very good chance that the dollar will stabilize as the economy improves. Foreign top trading partners have pledged to invest $5 trillion in the United States. With that large investment, more travel to the US, and people buying more US products such as cars that are now a better deal due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, come the end of the year, we could actually see a firmer dollar, a booming economy and perhaps further declines in gold and silver that are still near all times highs. I get excited, just writing about it, but it will require patience for investors as I do see this as a volatile year.
18% of US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. What’s the concern?
The price of GLP –1 drugs have come down and roughly 18% of adults in the US are using them. But there are other considerations outside of just weight loss. These drugs came out to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity not as a lifestyle change to lose 20 or 30 pounds. It is estimated that about half of people will stop taking the drug after one year and will probably be very disappointed with their future weight management. Studies have shown that when people stop taking the drug within about a year and a half, they regain most of the weight they lost. Studies also show that the weight gain comes four times faster than those who lost weight through normal dieting. While on these drugs, people see their blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels improved, but when they’re off the drug in a little over a year, those levels go back to where they were. Kevin Hall is a former senior investigator at the National Institute of Health and a specialist in nutrition. He says once you’re off the drugs, your appetite will be much higher than it was and you could end up overeating, which leads to taking in too many calories. Another study shows people who gain weight back and decide to go back on the medication that it’s not as successful the second or third time. People also don’t realize a thing called weight cycling or gaining and losing weight and how that can affect the percent of fat to muscle. It is estimated that when you lose weight about 25 to 30% of it is muscle. But the sad part is when you have the weight gain after you’re off the drugs, it is unfortunately more fat than muscle. So, as you can see, this is not a good cycle or a good plan for 10 to 20 years. If one thinks it is a good idea to just stay on these drugs for life, there are long-term risks such as gallbladder diseases, pancreatitis, and kidney damage. The kidney damage is one that would really worry me because as you get older and you have more pain you may want to take a pain reliever like Advil or ibuprofen, but doctors now look at people’s kidneys to see if they can handle Advil or ibuprofen, which is another strain on your kidneys. Being concerned with how you look and taking the easy way to look better by popping a pill or taking an injection may cause you to have regrets when you’re older.
Is the US housing market becoming a buyer's market?
From 2020 to about 2022 it was definitely a seller's market and people could ask whatever they wanted for their home and if you didn’t take it, there would be 10 people behind you that would. Well now things are changing back to where buyers can negotiate and sometimes even get a price below the asking price. Nationwide, about 62% of homebuyers purchased their home under the listing price. The discount of 8% was also the largest since 2012. Buyers are also obtaining concessions from sellers which could be things like cash for closing costs or buying down the mortgage. As recently as December, there were 600,000 more sellers than buyers and that’s the biggest gap going back to 2013. What is helping the housing market is mortgage rates have declined a little bit, which has made homes somewhat more affordable for some buyers along with the cool-off in prices that we have seen. The best place to buy a home currently is Florida and Texas because new home construction has created a big supply of homes for sale. It can really depend on the local market you are looking at, but if you’re buying in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, or Miami, about 85% of homebuyers paid under the original listing price. However, if you’re buying a home in Newark, New Jersey, San Francisco, or San Jose, only 39% received a discount from the original list price. It was also noted that those markets had a low amount of new construction. There could be more to come if the supply increases, and prices ease somewhat as it would likely bring more buyers back into the market. Depending on where you’re looking at buying, perhaps 2027 will be a great time to buy home.
Financial Planning: How Would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement?
Many investors nearing retirement feel comfortable staying fully invested in the S&P 500 because recent performance has been strong, but that confidence is often based on a short window of returns rather than the long reality of retirement. Retirement can last 20 to 30 years, and during that time markets will go through multiple corrections and bear markets. Once withdrawals begin, even modest withdrawal rates can amplify losses and deplete a portfolio. The late 1990s provide a clear example when the S&P 500 produced annual returns in the 20% to 30% range for several years in a row and many investors came to believe strong gains were easy and would continue… then 2000 came. Someone withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% from an S&P 500 portfolio in 2000 saw the account fall to roughly half its value within just three years, meaning a retiree at 62 with $1 million was left with barley $500k by 65. For those who stayed invested, after the Great Recession 9 years into retirement around age 71, the portfolio had lost close to 2/3rds of its original value. At that point, the withdrawal rate needed to continue income was now 14%, up from the original 4%. Today the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs and trades at historically elevated forward earnings multiples, mirroring the late 90’s. While the index has delivered roughly 10% annual returns over the long term, those averages hide the danger of sequence of returns risk, where starting withdrawals before or during a downturn can permanently impair a portfolio and leave too little capital to fully recover even when markets eventually rebound.
Companies Discussed: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) & Visa Inc. (V)
More
Has the US dollar become too weak? It can be difficult to filter through the headlines that make it appear that the dollar has dropped and lost 50% of its value and is getting close to collapse as some doom and gloom people would want you to believe. The truth is since January 2025; the dollar has been down about 10% against other major currencies. Keep in mind that it fluctuates every day, every hour, and every minute. This is normal, but the headlines can be very scary and it's also important to understand that over the last five years the dollar index has been up about 7%. There are pros and cons to a weak dollar. If you’re planning on traveling to Europe or some other foreign country, hotels and other items will cost you more when the dollar weakens since our dollar buys less. Also, the price of foreign cars and trucks will increase because again a dollar buys less. But the other side of the coin is that people from other parts of the world can now come to the United States and spend money in our economy since their currency now goes further. Also, many of our products that we export will be less expensive so exports should increase while our imports decrease, reducing our trade deficit. Lower interest rates can cause our dollar to fall, but a strong economy can help counterbalance that decline. Will there be a default on the dollar? The chances of that happening are extremely low for many reasons. The US dollar is still the dominant global reserve currency, which adds strength to the dollar. It is also understood that yes, we do have high debt, but also if needed, the US can print dollars to pay that debt. Looking forward to 2026, there’s a very good chance that the dollar will stabilize as the economy improves. Foreign top trading partners have pledged to invest $5 trillion in the United States. With that large investment, more travel to the US, and people buying more US products such as cars that are now a better deal due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, come the end of the year, we could actually see a firmer dollar, a booming economy and perhaps further declines in gold and silver that are still near all times highs. I get excited, just writing about it, but it will require patience for investors as I do see this as a volatile year. 18% of US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. What’s the concern? The price of GLP –1 drugs have come down and roughly 18% of adults in the US are using them. But there are other considerations outside of just weight loss. These drugs came out to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity not as a lifestyle change to lose 20 or 30 pounds. It is estimated that about half of people will stop taking the drug after one year and will probably be very disappointed with their future weight management. Studies have shown that when people stop taking the drug within about a year and a half, they regain most of the weight they lost. Studies also show that the weight gain comes four times faster than those who lost weight through normal dieting. While on these drugs, people see their blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels improved, but when they’re off the drug in a little over a year, those levels go back to where they were. Kevin Hall is a former senior investigator at the National Institute of Health and a specialist in nutrition. He says once you’re off the drugs, your appetite will be much higher than it was and you could end up overeating, which leads to taking in too many calories. Another study shows people who gain weight back and decide to go back on the medication that it’s not as successful the second or third time. People also don’t realize a thing called weight cycling or gaining and losing weight and how that can affect the percent of fat to muscle. It is estimated that when you lose weight about 25 to 30% of it is muscle. But the sad part is when you have the weight gain after you’re off the drugs, it is unfortunately more fat than muscle. So, as you can see, this is not a good cycle or a good plan for 10 to 20 years. If one thinks it is a good idea to just stay on these drugs for life, there are long-term risks such as gallbladder diseases, pancreatitis, and kidney damage. The kidney damage is one that would really worry me because as you get older and you have more pain you may want to take a pain reliever like Advil or ibuprofen, but doctors now look at people’s kidneys to see if they can handle Advil or ibuprofen, which is another strain on your kidneys. Being concerned with how you look and taking the easy way to look better by popping a pill or taking an injection may cause you to have regrets when you’re older. Is the US housing market becoming a buyer's market? From 2020 to about 2022 it was definitely a seller's market and people could ask whatever they wanted for their home and if you didn’t take it, there would be 10 people behind you that would. Well now things are changing back to where buyers can negotiate and sometimes even get a price below the asking price. Nationwide, about 62% of homebuyers purchased their home under the listing price. The discount of 8% was also the largest since 2012. Buyers are also obtaining concessions from sellers which could be things like cash for closing costs or buying down the mortgage. As recently as December, there were 600,000 more sellers than buyers and that’s the biggest gap going back to 2013. What is helping the housing market is mortgage rates have declined a little bit, which has made homes somewhat more affordable for some buyers along with the cool-off in prices that we have seen. The best place to buy a home currently is Florida and Texas because new home construction has created a big supply of homes for sale. It can really depend on the local market you are looking at, but if you’re buying in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, or Miami, about 85% of homebuyers paid under the original listing price. However, if you’re buying a home in Newark, New Jersey, San Francisco, or San Jose, only 39% received a discount from the original list price. It was also noted that those markets had a low amount of new construction. There could be more to come if the supply increases, and prices ease somewhat as it would likely bring more buyers back into the market. Depending on where you’re looking at buying, perhaps 2027 will be a great time to buy home. Financial Planning: How Would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement? Many investors nearing retirement feel comfortable staying fully invested in the S&P 500 because recent performance has been strong, but that confidence is often based on a short window of returns rather than the long reality of retirement. Retirement can last 20 to 30 years, and during that time markets will go through multiple corrections and bear markets. Once withdrawals begin, even modest withdrawal rates can amplify losses and deplete a portfolio. The late 1990s provide a clear example when the S&P 500 produced annual returns in the 20% to 30% range for several years in a row and many investors came to believe strong gains were easy and would continue… then 2000 came. Someone withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% from an S&P 500 portfolio in 2000 saw the account fall to roughly half its value within just three years, meaning a retiree at 62 with $1 million was left with barley $500k by 65. For those who stayed invested, after the Great Recession 9 years into retirement around age 71, the portfolio had lost close to 2/3rds of its original value. At that point, the withdrawal rate needed to continue income was now 14%, up from the original 4%. Today the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs and trades at historically elevated forward earnings multiples, mirroring the late 90’s. While the index has delivered roughly 10% annual returns over the long term, those averages hide the danger of sequence of returns risk, where starting withdrawals before or during a downturn can permanently impair a portfolio and leave too little capital to fully recover even when markets eventually rebound. Companies Discussed: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) & Visa Inc. (V)