When Quotes Lie: What Paid Rates, Index Choice, and Volatility Are Telling Us Now
Mon Feb 02 2026
Rates are rolling over earlier than expected, and the gap between quoted and paid freight rates is widening again.
In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down what’s driving the post–Chinese New Year slowdown, why quoted spot rates tend to exaggerate both peaks and troughs, and what that means for shippers heading into contract season. Lars also shares a concrete example showing how index choice alone can materially change freight costs—especially when proxies are used instead of actual loaded-rate data.
The conversation then turns to trade policy and geopolitics, including fresh tariff threats, the EU–India trade deal, Q4 carrier earnings, Panama Canal developments, and renewed uncertainty in the Red Sea.
For anyone planning budgets, contracts, or capacity in 2026, this episode offers timely perspective on where the market may head next—and where hidden risk still lives.
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Rates are rolling over earlier than expected, and the gap between quoted and paid freight rates is widening again. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down what’s driving the post–Chinese New Year slowdown, why quoted spot rates tend to exaggerate both peaks and troughs, and what that means for shippers heading into contract season. Lars also shares a concrete example showing how index choice alone can materially change freight costs—especially when proxies are used instead of actual loaded-rate data. The conversation then turns to trade policy and geopolitics, including fresh tariff threats, the EU–India trade deal, Q4 carrier earnings, Panama Canal developments, and renewed uncertainty in the Red Sea. For anyone planning budgets, contracts, or capacity in 2026, this episode offers timely perspective on where the market may head next—and where hidden risk still lives.