Telltales

SHOWNOTES In this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout. [00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions. [00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms up on geopolitical risk, natural gas rebounds sharply amid cold-weather pricing, and the team notes progress on U.S. spending bills and budgeting timelines. [05:26] Page 9: Energy Majors and LNG Hunt makes his pick among XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, and LNG—favoring LNG on capacity execution and positioning despite broader LNG supply concerns. [05:59] Page 10: Midstream Showdown On KMI, EPD, ET, WES, and ONEOK, Hunt leans toward EPD for integration and consistent operating performance. [06:19] Page 11: Upstream Discipline Test With oil down meaningfully, Hunt selects EOG as the most disciplined operator best suited to manage a tougher commodity tape. [06:45] Page 12: Natural Gas Producers and Midstream Weighing AR, EQT, CHK, and AM, Hunt calls it close but lands on AR, citing solid positioning and management. [08:01] Page 13: Banks and Brokers Jason and Mike both pick IBKR (and note broad AI agreement), while Hunt goes contrarian with GS; they discuss how buybacks vs. organic growth can drive FCF outcomes. [09:11] Page 14: Industrials and Aerospace Jason picks TDG on aircraft production recovery, Mike sticks with GNRC, and Hunt picks CAT—highlighting end-market sensitivity and where operating leverage may show up. [10:01] Healthcare: Big Pharma and Biotech Picks Jason picks LNTH (new prostate diagnostic and Alzheimer’s imaging growth), Mike picks VRTX, and they recap last year’s surprising winner and how baselines can distort growth rates. [11:34] Page 16: Consumer, Restaurants, and Beverage Jason and Mike align on CELH (including growth from Alani Nu), while Hunt goes with CMG and discusses leadership changes and brand durability. [13:28] Page 17: Logistics, Retail, and Housing Jason sticks with FDX (including a thesis around USPS services), while Mike and Hunt pick LEN—framing potential tailwinds for homebuilding and affordability dynamics. [15:01] Page 18: Materials, Fertilizer, and Utilities The team debates FCX vs. ALB vs. CF vs. NEE, focusing on lithium snapback potential, copper strength, and commodity-linked cashflow volatility. [17:05] Page 19: Managed Care and Pharma Giants With UNH, CVS, REGN, and LLY, the group converges on LLY again—weight-loss and Alzheimer’s themes dominate the discussion. [18:41] Page 20: Platforms, Delivery, Travel, and Small-Cap Healthcare Jason and Mike pick HROW again as commercialization scales, while Hunt chooses UBER, arguing the market may be underestimating Uber’s moat as autonomy ramps. [20:20] Scoreboard and Pick Recap They tally results (including AI agents) and reflect on where each host’s picks were strongest vs. weakest. [21:08] Healthcare Policy: PBM Reform and Incentives Jason breaks down PBM-related provisions affecting Medicare Part D incentives and rebates, plus how workarounds (e.g., GPO structures) can blunt intended reforms. [23:05] Administration, FDA Direction, and System-Level Change The team argues that structural regulatory changes to food/health oversight may be more durable than headline-grabbing controversies, emphasizing long-term consumer impact. [26:36] Semiconductors: ASML Bookings and the Capex Reality Check They interpret strong ASML bookings as evidence the AI infrastructure buildout remains real, then discuss TSM capacity constraints, Intel’s catch-up spend, and why partners seek second sources. [29:10] China, Taiwan Risk, and the Next Topic Arc A forward-looking setup for deeper China/Taiwan discussion across the memo universe, with a reading plug for Apple in China and how policy risk filters through real businesses. Thanks for listening. If you want the updated Cash Flow Memo and exhibits, download it at the podcast site—then drop a comment with your own “Pick’em” winners and what data you’re watching this year. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. 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