EP: 0054 - 2025 Market Recap and 2026 Forecast for Bellingham & Whatcom County with Justin Nelson
Wed Dec 10 2025
Spring came in hot, fall cooled it down, and somehow Whatcom County finished the year right where it started. We unpack how a classic seasonal surge ran into a wall of rising inventory and sticky mortgage rates, leaving both prices and sales flat year over year. Justin Nelson joins Paul Balzati to break down the quarter-by-quarter story: multiple offers in core neighborhoods, longer days on market across the board, and a four-month supply that changed the pace without crashing values.
We get specific about buyer and seller behavior. Buyers finally had time to compare homes, revisit favorites, and negotiate on terms. Sellers had to recalibrate: a sharp first weekend is still possible for well-priced listings, but patience and realistic pricing became the norm. We also split the market by price point. The high end is carrying a heavy load of inventory and longer absorption times, while low-to-mid price bands continue to see steady demand, especially in in-town neighborhoods where convenience and condition drive action.
Then we look ahead. If mortgage rates drift toward six percent, expect more transactions in 2026 as buying power recovers and fence-sitters reenter the hunt. We explore how Bellingham’s comprehensive plan—ADU expansion, potential lot splits, and broader infill—could unlock supply and attract local investment. We also discuss the potential impact of a 50-year mortgage on affordability, sales volume, and pricing dynamics, especially for entry-level and move-up buyers. Our take: modest spring appreciation followed by a plateau, more sales overall, and a high-end segment that may lag until inventory thins.
Want the playbook for your next move—price strategy, timing, financing, and neighborhood selection? Tune in, subscribe for more local market insight, and leave a review with your 2026 prediction so we can revisit it next year.
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Spring came in hot, fall cooled it down, and somehow Whatcom County finished the year right where it started. We unpack how a classic seasonal surge ran into a wall of rising inventory and sticky mortgage rates, leaving both prices and sales flat year over year. Justin Nelson joins Paul Balzati to break down the quarter-by-quarter story: multiple offers in core neighborhoods, longer days on market across the board, and a four-month supply that changed the pace without crashing values. We get specific about buyer and seller behavior. Buyers finally had time to compare homes, revisit favorites, and negotiate on terms. Sellers had to recalibrate: a sharp first weekend is still possible for well-priced listings, but patience and realistic pricing became the norm. We also split the market by price point. The high end is carrying a heavy load of inventory and longer absorption times, while low-to-mid price bands continue to see steady demand, especially in in-town neighborhoods where convenience and condition drive action. Then we look ahead. If mortgage rates drift toward six percent, expect more transactions in 2026 as buying power recovers and fence-sitters reenter the hunt. We explore how Bellingham’s comprehensive plan—ADU expansion, potential lot splits, and broader infill—could unlock supply and attract local investment. We also discuss the potential impact of a 50-year mortgage on affordability, sales volume, and pricing dynamics, especially for entry-level and move-up buyers. Our take: modest spring appreciation followed by a plateau, more sales overall, and a high-end segment that may lag until inventory thins. Want the playbook for your next move—price strategy, timing, financing, and neighborhood selection? Tune in, subscribe for more local market insight, and leave a review with your 2026 prediction so we can revisit it next year.