January Perspectives: Expectations vs. Forecasting
Thu Jan 22 2026
In this perspectives episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier challenges the value of short-term market forecasts and urges listeners to focus instead on long-term financial planning. Drawing from recent blog posts and research by financial thinkers like Bob Seawright, Ruben Miller, and Larry Swedroe, Jeff outlines why predictions often miss the mark and how earnings yield can guide more meaningful expectations. He offers practical advice for building resilient portfolios, emphasizing humility, diversification, and focusing on what we can control in uncertain times.
Topics covered:
Why annual market forecasts are often unreliable
The psychological allure of financial predictions
The difference between short-term forecasts and long-term return assumptions
Insights from Bob Seawright’s “Forecasting Follies”
Ruben Miller’s satirical take on 2026 forecasts
How earnings yield helps set intermediate-term expectations
The role of the CAPE ratio in understanding market valuations
US market overvaluation and the case for international diversification
How government deficit spending has impacted recent market performance
Building resilient portfolios for retirees and pre-retirees
Practical portfolio planning principles for uncertain environments
Encouragement to focus on controllable factors and maintain realistic optimism
Useful Links:
Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffberniercfp/
TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/
TandemGrowth Financial Advisors (“TandemGrowth”), a registered investment adviser, is providing this video which is intended for general educational purposes and is not personalized investment advice. The information provided is not tailored to any individual's specific investment objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that TandemGrowth has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While the content that will be presented is believed to be factual and up to date, it is based on information obtained from a variety of sources. TandemGrowth believes this information is reliable, however, it has not necessarily been independently verified. TandemGrowth does not guarantee the complete accuracy of all data in this video, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the presenter as of the date of the webinar and are subject to change. This video does not constitute personalized advice from TandemGrowth or its affiliated investment professionals, or a solicitation to execute specific securities transactions. Participants should not use any of this content as the sole basis for any investment, financial planning, tax, legal or other decisions. TandemGrowth is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the video content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. We encourage attendees to conduct independent research and seek advice from qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this video should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by TandemGrowth, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. Additional information about our Firm, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and Form CRS is available upon request and at www.tandemgrowth.com.
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In this perspectives episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier challenges the value of short-term market forecasts and urges listeners to focus instead on long-term financial planning. Drawing from recent blog posts and research by financial thinkers like Bob Seawright, Ruben Miller, and Larry Swedroe, Jeff outlines why predictions often miss the mark and how earnings yield can guide more meaningful expectations. He offers practical advice for building resilient portfolios, emphasizing humility, diversification, and focusing on what we can control in uncertain times. Topics covered: Why annual market forecasts are often unreliable The psychological allure of financial predictions The difference between short-term forecasts and long-term return assumptions Insights from Bob Seawright’s “Forecasting Follies” Ruben Miller’s satirical take on 2026 forecasts How earnings yield helps set intermediate-term expectations The role of the CAPE ratio in understanding market valuations US market overvaluation and the case for international diversification How government deficit spending has impacted recent market performance Building resilient portfolios for retirees and pre-retirees Practical portfolio planning principles for uncertain environments Encouragement to focus on controllable factors and maintain realistic optimism Useful Links: Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffberniercfp/ TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/ TandemGrowth Financial Advisors (“TandemGrowth”), a registered investment adviser, is providing this video which is intended for general educational purposes and is not personalized investment advice. The information provided is not tailored to any individual's specific investment objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that TandemGrowth has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While the content that will be presented is believed to be factual and up to date, it is based on information obtained from a variety of sources. TandemGrowth believes this information is reliable, however, it has not necessarily been independently verified. TandemGrowth does not guarantee the complete accuracy of all data in this video, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the presenter as of the date of the webinar and are subject to change. This video does not constitute personalized advice from TandemGrowth or its affiliated investment professionals, or a solicitation to execute specific securities transactions. Participants should not use any of this content as the sole basis for any investment, financial planning, tax, legal or other decisions. TandemGrowth is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the video content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. We encourage attendees to conduct independent research and seek advice from qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this video should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by TandemGrowth, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. Additional information about our Firm, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and Form CRS is available upon request and at www.tandemgrowth.com.