The First Turning
Sat Dec 13 2025
Welcome to another edition of Wisdom and Wealth. Thank you for joining me!
This past week, I have had the lyrics of Ben Rector bouncing around my head. In this particular song, he says “I’m learning how to eat the fruit that is in season.” For some reason this has stuck with me, because I find that so much of life, we can find ourselves not doing this. Our nature is prone to want other people’s fruit, we are prone to worry, doubt or victimhood as a society. Rather than finding the ability to enjoy the things we have and the planting, growing and harvest seasons associated with our “geography,” we look past it. I’ve don’t this countless times as well. I’ve let questions I did not know the answer to yet, or problems that could only be fix with time and discipline, rob me of enjoying the common grace that was right in front of me.
Now, I’m not saying we should look past difficulty or even throw up our hands and give in. What I am saying is we should seek to find the good that we are blessed with and work with the leverage of the season of life we are in. Today I want to focus on the worry and doubt portion of the above and share a common way I hear this sneak into people’s investment thesis and financial plan.
From time to time, I’ll hear someone ask: “have you heard about the book “The Fourth Turning?” For those unfamiliar, it is a book written about supposedly four cycles life which include growth, rebellion, individualism and then decay. The mantra you’ll often hear associated with this is “hard times make strong men, strong men make good times, good times make weak men, and weak men make hard times.” And so, the cycle continues.
While I do see some validity to the concept and think it’s a helpful framework for perhaps looking backward on history, I wonder if it is a useful framework for looking forward. Often what is being asked in the pregnant question: “What do you think of the fourth turning?” is what part of the cycle are we in? For some people I think it is a sign that they are asking “when is doomsday?” But more than this, I think it can subtly lead us into a path of victimhood. IE society and life are just this way, and we must follow along. Worse yet, I think some people then are prone to think that along the way we must look for signs and secrets which prevent us from pain or ruin.
I have avoided confronting this thought process for quite a while. Mainly because my gut had such an immediate reversion to the sentiment. Frankly, I didn’t trust what would come out of my mouth! I am sure that there are numerous differences and nuances to the level and scope of beliefs to the Fourth Turning concept, so please accept my humble observations below not as judgements but as “inoculations” from what I think could be unhelpful or even harmful second and third order beliefs which eventually may find their way into action. So, with that disclaimer…below I’m going to list out a few of the implications which come through this philosophy which most concern me.
Pain should be avoided / is a Curse
Some of the themes I hear through this concept is that if we “just pay attention” we can avoid the pain that our neighbors will feel. This goes contrary to everything I’ve experienced and have witnessed. Pain and struggle are facts of life. They are not something to be avoided or surprised by but simply a part of life. Our approach to life remains the same when life is good or when life is a struggle. If our perspective and approach changes depending on our circumstances it reveals something about our core principles which should alarm us. The way we evaluate a company doesn’t change based upon the perception of our neighbors. The way we evaluate whether a financial plan is stable or not doesn’t radically change based upon outward circumstances. Most of what we are doing is asking: “are these first principles aligned with my own?” We cannot control the events going on around us, but if we stick to our first principles, we will look back and see who those challenging times made our relationships and financial plans even stronger.
Change with the times to preserve ourselves
This idea is never expressly said but the implication is always there. I see it when I’m out and about and people are promulgating their returns in shiny objects or new ideas, they are participating in. In focusing on returns rather than fundamentals these same people are being pulled away from prudent anchors which have stood the test of time. In doing this we underestimate how being an owner of a well-run company alleviates this need to some degree because the products and services those companies provide are making the actual innovation for us and the profits are the first measure the effectiveness.
Catastrophe is predictable
Now this was probably never the intent of the authors of this book, but I find this implication to be the final result for many readers. This perhaps is the deadliest of implications which I see creeping into conversations around this topic. Simply put downstream of this book written nearly 30 years ago, there is a whole cottage industry of newsletter writers and influencers out there selling you a subscription based on the fact that they have predicted 15 of the last 3 market or societal catastrophes. Yes, there is always an element of truth to some of what these types are saying, but it needs to be remembered that few of them make a living managing actual money. And I’ve got to ask, if they were so effective at predicting events…why haven’t our friends in the hedge fund industry taken them onboard? I’m being a bit sarcastic here, but for good reason. If those tasked with finding market inefficiencies and timing those inefficiencies don’t take these newsletter / influencer types seriously…why should you?
The First and Final Turning
To combat this, dear reader, I’d like to consider the First Turning. For me this starts with Gratitude. I’m grateful that I get to live out my life’s purpose with those I love and those I care about. I’m grateful that I get the weighty task of passing on my first principles to those I care about most, my family and my clients and friends. These first principles will guide us and our families through whatever circumstance life brings our way. Because if you really think about it, challenge and uncertainty are the norm. Despite this fact, normal people have stood the test of time, simply by doing their best, with what they have, where they are.
It is this ethos which has been the unsung hero of every period of history. Those who seek to jettison or even modify their first principles typically do so at great cost to themselves and those close to them. Rather than trying to figure out how to modify their first principles, a better use of time is figuring out how to apply our first principles to our current situation and how to pass on those same principles to those we love most. This is the idea which says that no matter what happens outside in the world at large, our first principles remain the same. Rather than focusing on and worrying about exterior factors which we cannot control, I hope we begin to focus on how we can apply and pass on our first principles. In so doing I think we worry less and begin to learn how to eat the fruit that is in season.
The Bahnsen Group is registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC.
This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors.
All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.
Third-party links and references are provided solely to share social, cultural and educational information. Any reference in this post to any person, or organization, or activities, products, or services related to such person or organization, or any linkages from this post to the web site of another party, do not constitute or imply the endorsement, recommendation, or favoring of The Bahnsen Group or Hightower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates, employees or contractors acting on their behalf. Hightower Advisors, LLC, do not guarantee the accuracy or safety of any linked site.
Hightower Advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client’s individual circumstances and can change at any time without notice. Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for related questions.
This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
This is a public episode. If you would like t
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Welcome to another edition of Wisdom and Wealth. Thank you for joining me! This past week, I have had the lyrics of Ben Rector bouncing around my head. In this particular song, he says “I’m learning how to eat the fruit that is in season.” For some reason this has stuck with me, because I find that so much of life, we can find ourselves not doing this. Our nature is prone to want other people’s fruit, we are prone to worry, doubt or victimhood as a society. Rather than finding the ability to enjoy the things we have and the planting, growing and harvest seasons associated with our “geography,” we look past it. I’ve don’t this countless times as well. I’ve let questions I did not know the answer to yet, or problems that could only be fix with time and discipline, rob me of enjoying the common grace that was right in front of me. Now, I’m not saying we should look past difficulty or even throw up our hands and give in. What I am saying is we should seek to find the good that we are blessed with and work with the leverage of the season of life we are in. Today I want to focus on the worry and doubt portion of the above and share a common way I hear this sneak into people’s investment thesis and financial plan. From time to time, I’ll hear someone ask: “have you heard about the book “The Fourth Turning?” For those unfamiliar, it is a book written about supposedly four cycles life which include growth, rebellion, individualism and then decay. The mantra you’ll often hear associated with this is “hard times make strong men, strong men make good times, good times make weak men, and weak men make hard times.” And so, the cycle continues. While I do see some validity to the concept and think it’s a helpful framework for perhaps looking backward on history, I wonder if it is a useful framework for looking forward. Often what is being asked in the pregnant question: “What do you think of the fourth turning?” is what part of the cycle are we in? For some people I think it is a sign that they are asking “when is doomsday?” But more than this, I think it can subtly lead us into a path of victimhood. IE society and life are just this way, and we must follow along. Worse yet, I think some people then are prone to think that along the way we must look for signs and secrets which prevent us from pain or ruin. I have avoided confronting this thought process for quite a while. Mainly because my gut had such an immediate reversion to the sentiment. Frankly, I didn’t trust what would come out of my mouth! I am sure that there are numerous differences and nuances to the level and scope of beliefs to the Fourth Turning concept, so please accept my humble observations below not as judgements but as “inoculations” from what I think could be unhelpful or even harmful second and third order beliefs which eventually may find their way into action. So, with that disclaimer…below I’m going to list out a few of the implications which come through this philosophy which most concern me. Pain should be avoided / is a Curse Some of the themes I hear through this concept is that if we “just pay attention” we can avoid the pain that our neighbors will feel. This goes contrary to everything I’ve experienced and have witnessed. Pain and struggle are facts of life. They are not something to be avoided or surprised by but simply a part of life. Our approach to life remains the same when life is good or when life is a struggle. If our perspective and approach changes depending on our circumstances it reveals something about our core principles which should alarm us. The way we evaluate a company doesn’t change based upon the perception of our neighbors. The way we evaluate whether a financial plan is stable or not doesn’t radically change based upon outward circumstances. Most of what we are doing is asking: “are these first principles aligned with my own?” We cannot control the events going on around us, but if we stick to our first principles, we will look back and see who those challenging times made our relationships and financial plans even stronger. Change with the times to preserve ourselves This idea is never expressly said but the implication is always there. I see it when I’m out and about and people are promulgating their returns in shiny objects or new ideas, they are participating in. In focusing on returns rather than fundamentals these same people are being pulled away from prudent anchors which have stood the test of time. In doing this we underestimate how being an owner of a well-run company alleviates this need to some degree because the products and services those companies provide are making the actual innovation for us and the profits are the first measure the effectiveness. Catastrophe is predictable Now this was probably never the intent of the authors of this book, but I find this implication to be the final result for many readers. This perhaps is the deadliest of implications which I see creeping into conversations around this topic. Simply put downstream of this book written nearly 30 years ago, there is a whole cottage industry of newsletter writers and influencers out there selling you a subscription based on the fact that they have predicted 15 of the last 3 market or societal catastrophes. Yes, there is always an element of truth to some of what these types are saying, but it needs to be remembered that few of them make a living managing actual money. And I’ve got to ask, if they were so effective at predicting events…why haven’t our friends in the hedge fund industry taken them onboard? I’m being a bit sarcastic here, but for good reason. If those tasked with finding market inefficiencies and timing those inefficiencies don’t take these newsletter / influencer types seriously…why should you? The First and Final Turning To combat this, dear reader, I’d like to consider the First Turning. For me this starts with Gratitude. I’m grateful that I get to live out my life’s purpose with those I love and those I care about. I’m grateful that I get the weighty task of passing on my first principles to those I care about most, my family and my clients and friends. These first principles will guide us and our families through whatever circumstance life brings our way. Because if you really think about it, challenge and uncertainty are the norm. Despite this fact, normal people have stood the test of time, simply by doing their best, with what they have, where they are. It is this ethos which has been the unsung hero of every period of history. Those who seek to jettison or even modify their first principles typically do so at great cost to themselves and those close to them. Rather than trying to figure out how to modify their first principles, a better use of time is figuring out how to apply our first principles to our current situation and how to pass on those same principles to those we love most. This is the idea which says that no matter what happens outside in the world at large, our first principles remain the same. Rather than focusing on and worrying about exterior factors which we cannot control, I hope we begin to focus on how we can apply and pass on our first principles. In so doing I think we worry less and begin to learn how to eat the fruit that is in season. The Bahnsen Group is registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. Third-party links and references are provided solely to share social, cultural and educational information. Any reference in this post to any person, or organization, or activities, products, or services related to such person or organization, or any linkages from this post to the web site of another party, do not constitute or imply the endorsement, recommendation, or favoring of The Bahnsen Group or Hightower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates, employees or contractors acting on their behalf. Hightower Advisors, LLC, do not guarantee the accuracy or safety of any linked site. Hightower Advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client’s individual circumstances and can change at any time without notice. Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for related questions. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates. This is a public episode. If you would like t