SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver
Sat Feb 07 2026
Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 - MAN Group paper...
More
Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals 04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework 10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction 12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets 16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse 22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals 24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions 31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making 34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update 37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL 41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability 45:13 - MAN Group paper...