v2.5 - The “Old Playbook” for Real Estate Is Dead
Fri Feb 06 2026
The Wall Street Journal recently declared commercial real estate “too cheap to ignore.” Dustin and Adam break down the article’s claims, challenge some cherry-picked data, and explain what institutional investors returning as net buyers for the first time since 2022 actually signals.
Commercial real estate values are down from 2022 peaks on average…but how much of that decline reflects a real structural problem versus a correction from a bubble fueled by cheap debt? The discussion also digs into why comparing real estate returns to Nvidia’s 70% gains misses the point entirely, and why REITs are a poor proxy for actual real estate performance.
The article’s most telling line: “The income a building generates is now much more important.” – that’s the same cash-flow-first approach Dustin and Adam have been emphasizing all along. They also discuss why the so-called “old playbook” was really just a bet on interest rates, why bridge debt expirations are forcing retrades, and what history says about buying when CRE falls more than 10%.
Episode Release Notes & Resources:
[WSJ] – Commercial Real Estate is Getting Too Cheap to Ignore: https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/commercial-real-estate-is-getting-too-cheap-to-ignore-c208517b
Watch episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF94y8Jqvfg
See all Wealth Independence episodes at https://www.wealthindependencepod.com
Connect with Dustin:
Big Spring Capital LinkedIn (/in/TheDustinBailey) Twitter/X (@TheDustinBailey) Connect with Adam:
Bidwell Capital LinkedIn (/in/AdamJPenn)
This show is for informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. All investments carry risk, and investors should always conduct thorough due diligence and consult with qualified professionals before investing.
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The Wall Street Journal recently declared commercial real estate “too cheap to ignore.” Dustin and Adam break down the article’s claims, challenge some cherry-picked data, and explain what institutional investors returning as net buyers for the first time since 2022 actually signals. Commercial real estate values are down from 2022 peaks on average…but how much of that decline reflects a real structural problem versus a correction from a bubble fueled by cheap debt? The discussion also digs into why comparing real estate returns to Nvidia’s 70% gains misses the point entirely, and why REITs are a poor proxy for actual real estate performance. The article’s most telling line: “The income a building generates is now much more important.” – that’s the same cash-flow-first approach Dustin and Adam have been emphasizing all along. They also discuss why the so-called “old playbook” was really just a bet on interest rates, why bridge debt expirations are forcing retrades, and what history says about buying when CRE falls more than 10%. Episode Release Notes & Resources: [WSJ] – Commercial Real Estate is Getting Too Cheap to Ignore: https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/commercial-real-estate-is-getting-too-cheap-to-ignore-c208517b Watch episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF94y8Jqvfg See all Wealth Independence episodes at https://www.wealthindependencepod.com Connect with Dustin: Big Spring Capital LinkedIn (/in/TheDustinBailey) Twitter/X (@TheDustinBailey) Connect with Adam: Bidwell Capital LinkedIn (/in/AdamJPenn) This show is for informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. All investments carry risk, and investors should always conduct thorough due diligence and consult with qualified professionals before investing.