The ex-ballerina betting big on prediction markets
Fri Feb 06 2026
In our first edition of Meet the Founders, we meet Luana Lopes Lara, creator of Kalshi, a prediction markets startup that allows users to trade on the outcome of real-world events - from inflation and interest rates to elections and geopolitics.
Kalshi drew attention for showing Zohran Mamdani as a favourite in the NYC mayoral race, as prediction markets gain traction as political barometers. But the wider industry has also faced scrutiny: a trader on rival platform Polymarket reportedly made nearly half a million dollars betting on the capture of Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro before it was announced.
The controversy around prediction markets has placed Lopes Lara and her company at the centre of a growing regulatory and ethical debate in the US. In this episode, the Brazilian founder explains how the discipline and resilience of ballet has shaped her approach to building a business, and why she believes markets can often forecast the future better than experts.
If you'd like to get in touch with the team, our email address is businessdaily@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Sam Fenwick
Producer: Amber Mehmood
Sound mix: Toby James
Business Daily is the home of in-depth audio journalism devoted to the world of money and work. From small startup stories to big corporate takeovers, global economic shifts to trends in technology, we look at the key figures, ideas and events shaping business.
Each episode is a 17-minute deep dive into a single topic, featuring expert analysis and the people at the heart of the story.
Recent episodes explore the weight-loss drug revolution, the growth in AI, the cost of living, why bond markets are so powerful, China's property bubble, and Gen Z's experience of the current job market.
We also feature in-depth interviews with company founders - like Luana Lopes Lara - and some of the world's most prominent CEOs. These include the CEO of Google Sundar Pichai, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, and billionaire founder Judy Faulkner of Epic Systems, one of the world's largest medical record software providers.
(Picture: Luana Lara Lopes, founder and Chief Operating Officer of Kalshi.)
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In our first edition of Meet the Founders, we meet Luana Lopes Lara, creator of Kalshi, a prediction markets startup that allows users to trade on the outcome of real-world events - from inflation and interest rates to elections and geopolitics. Kalshi drew attention for showing Zohran Mamdani as a favourite in the NYC mayoral race, as prediction markets gain traction as political barometers. But the wider industry has also faced scrutiny: a trader on rival platform Polymarket reportedly made nearly half a million dollars betting on the capture of Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro before it was announced. The controversy around prediction markets has placed Lopes Lara and her company at the centre of a growing regulatory and ethical debate in the US. In this episode, the Brazilian founder explains how the discipline and resilience of ballet has shaped her approach to building a business, and why she believes markets can often forecast the future better than experts. If you'd like to get in touch with the team, our email address is businessdaily@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Sam Fenwick Producer: Amber Mehmood Sound mix: Toby James Business Daily is the home of in-depth audio journalism devoted to the world of money and work. From small startup stories to big corporate takeovers, global economic shifts to trends in technology, we look at the key figures, ideas and events shaping business. Each episode is a 17-minute deep dive into a single topic, featuring expert analysis and the people at the heart of the story. Recent episodes explore the weight-loss drug revolution, the growth in AI, the cost of living, why bond markets are so powerful, China's property bubble, and Gen Z's experience of the current job market. We also feature in-depth interviews with company founders - like Luana Lopes Lara - and some of the world's most prominent CEOs. These include the CEO of Google Sundar Pichai, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, and billionaire founder Judy Faulkner of Epic Systems, one of the world's largest medical record software providers. (Picture: Luana Lara Lopes, founder and Chief Operating Officer of Kalshi.)