Low Inflation. Weak Rupee. Falling Stocks. What's REALLY Going On?
Wed Jan 28 2026
India is reporting 8%+ GDP growth and cooling inflation, yet stock market returns are muted, the rupee continues to weaken, and everyday expenses feel anything but stable.
So which reality should we trust?
In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the contradictions shaping India's economy today. From headline vs core inflation to GDP data quality, rupee depreciation, and why markets aren't rewarding growth, they connect macro numbers to lived experience.
A nuanced, data-driven conversation on what truly lies beneath the headlines and what it means for investors, policy watchers, and India's economic trajectory heading into 2026 and beyond.
Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:15 - GDP growth 8.2% but contradictions everywhere
02:32 - Are we booming or fizzling out?
02:55 - Let's start with inflation
08:09 - Headline inflation 0.71% vs core inflation 4.1%
10:07 - Why people don't believe 0.7% inflation
12:08 - Bangalore rent example - 28k to 60k
15:10 - Supply will moderate rent prices
17:37 - Inflation expectations matter
21:05 - Uncertainty makes planning difficult
22:07 - What's happening with the rupee?
22:36 - Economics standing on its head
24:08 - Gold making current account look worse
28:31 - RBI needs to decide - control or not?
31:37 - GDP - 8.2% real growth
35:29 - Base year problem - still using 2011-12
40:37 - Discrepancies in GDP calculation
43:11 - What's driving growth?
43:16 - Manufacturing doing well at 9%
47:43 - Financial services growth worrying
48:05 - Is 8% growth here to stay?
51:42 - China grew 10% for 15 years
56:22 - Stock market - just a bad year?
59:16 - Small players will benefit more
1:05:38 - SEBI new rules on TER and BER
1:06:04 - What are the changes?
1:17:47 - TER vs BER explained
1:23:23 - Who benefits from new rules?
1:30:18 - Brokerage reduction impact
1:34:16 - Impact on sell-side research
1:36:17 - BER is more comparable going forward
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India is reporting 8%+ GDP growth and cooling inflation, yet stock market returns are muted, the rupee continues to weaken, and everyday expenses feel anything but stable. So which reality should we trust? In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the contradictions shaping India's economy today. From headline vs core inflation to GDP data quality, rupee depreciation, and why markets aren't rewarding growth, they connect macro numbers to lived experience. A nuanced, data-driven conversation on what truly lies beneath the headlines and what it means for investors, policy watchers, and India's economic trajectory heading into 2026 and beyond. Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 01:15 - GDP growth 8.2% but contradictions everywhere 02:32 - Are we booming or fizzling out? 02:55 - Let's start with inflation 08:09 - Headline inflation 0.71% vs core inflation 4.1% 10:07 - Why people don't believe 0.7% inflation 12:08 - Bangalore rent example - 28k to 60k 15:10 - Supply will moderate rent prices 17:37 - Inflation expectations matter 21:05 - Uncertainty makes planning difficult 22:07 - What's happening with the rupee? 22:36 - Economics standing on its head 24:08 - Gold making current account look worse 28:31 - RBI needs to decide - control or not? 31:37 - GDP - 8.2% real growth 35:29 - Base year problem - still using 2011-12 40:37 - Discrepancies in GDP calculation 43:11 - What's driving growth? 43:16 - Manufacturing doing well at 9% 47:43 - Financial services growth worrying 48:05 - Is 8% growth here to stay? 51:42 - China grew 10% for 15 years 56:22 - Stock market - just a bad year? 59:16 - Small players will benefit more 1:05:38 - SEBI new rules on TER and BER 1:06:04 - What are the changes? 1:17:47 - TER vs BER explained 1:23:23 - Who benefits from new rules? 1:30:18 - Brokerage reduction impact 1:34:16 - Impact on sell-side research 1:36:17 - BER is more comparable going forward