2026 Outlook w/ Conor Sen (Ep.27)
Thu Dec 04 2025
Chase welcomes back Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen for his third appearance on Doxa Takes to tackle the 2026 outlook—and why getting there requires making sense of 2025's messy economic puzzle.
This past year gave us economic data that made sense in isolation but was tough to reconcile. Labor markets showed rising unemployment in a low-hire, low-fire environment, yet consumer spending stayed resilient. AI capex continued running hot while housing sat in recession. Policy whipsawed between posturing and action, creating broad uncertainty with occasional sharp interventions. Chase and Conor work through what surprised them, what aligned with their expectations, and why these contradictions matter for the year ahead.
They outline three distinct pathways for 2026:
Consensus continuation - The low-hire, low-fire labor market persists, housing bounces along the bottom, AI spending sustains its momentum, and policy uncertainty gradually recedes.The AI to housing handoff - AI capex cools, financial conditions tighten across equity and private markets, but rates fall substantially allowing cyclical sectors and housing reignite in response.Classic recession - Unemployment marches higher, AI investment pulls back, consumer spending weakens, and rate cuts prove insufficient against deteriorating fundamentals.This isn't about prediction—it's about understanding which variables actually matter and how they interact. From policy uncertainty to structural economic shifts, we're exploring the frameworks investors need to navigate what comes next. Enjoy!
Nothing we say here is investment advice – we don't know your personal situation, your goals, or any other variables that we use to create a unique financial and investment plan for you and your family. We're here just chatting and of course you're welcome to reach out to anyone at Doxa Capital if you are interested in a plan that complies with your financial situation. The views expressed are that of Chase, David, and Conor and should not be held as representations of their respective firms.
For terms and conditions, please visit our website at https://doxacap.com/terms-conditions/
Music by Agent Method
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Chase welcomes back Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen for his third appearance on Doxa Takes to tackle the 2026 outlook—and why getting there requires making sense of 2025's messy economic puzzle. This past year gave us economic data that made sense in isolation but was tough to reconcile. Labor markets showed rising unemployment in a low-hire, low-fire environment, yet consumer spending stayed resilient. AI capex continued running hot while housing sat in recession. Policy whipsawed between posturing and action, creating broad uncertainty with occasional sharp interventions. Chase and Conor work through what surprised them, what aligned with their expectations, and why these contradictions matter for the year ahead. They outline three distinct pathways for 2026: Consensus continuation - The low-hire, low-fire labor market persists, housing bounces along the bottom, AI spending sustains its momentum, and policy uncertainty gradually recedes.The AI to housing handoff - AI capex cools, financial conditions tighten across equity and private markets, but rates fall substantially allowing cyclical sectors and housing reignite in response.Classic recession - Unemployment marches higher, AI investment pulls back, consumer spending weakens, and rate cuts prove insufficient against deteriorating fundamentals.This isn't about prediction—it's about understanding which variables actually matter and how they interact. From policy uncertainty to structural economic shifts, we're exploring the frameworks investors need to navigate what comes next. Enjoy! Nothing we say here is investment advice – we don't know your personal situation, your goals, or any other variables that we use to create a unique financial and investment plan for you and your family. We're here just chatting and of course you're welcome to reach out to anyone at Doxa Capital if you are interested in a plan that complies with your financial situation. The views expressed are that of Chase, David, and Conor and should not be held as representations of their respective firms. For terms and conditions, please visit our website at https://doxacap.com/terms-conditions/ Music by Agent Method