Episode 123 – Was this Googles' DeepSeek moment?
Thu Nov 27 2025
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about what could be Googles' DeepSeek moment – the launch of Gemini 3. If it is everything that ChatGPT isn't, what does this do to the promises made by OpenAI?
(1:03) Let's start this week with what I'm calling the Nvidia check your airbags moment because the last fortnight has been incredibly volatile in markets. Whilst you are not alarmed by this you have been telling clients to check their airbags.
(3:20) How has the narrative around AI changed? We hear a lot about the size of capital spending budgets from the likes of Nvidia and Microsoft etc but government seem to view it as more a national security priority.
(6:29) I hear what you are saying – Gemini 3 does seem impressive. But why did this negatively affect the share price for Nvidia? Can't Nvidia supply chips to Google as easily as it does to OpenAI?
(9:21) Let's move to the second theme of the week: monetary policy is becoming more challenging. Just when we had the fog of tariffs and the uncertainty of the government shutdown lifting, we now have less conviction in the path of monetary policy.
(12:25) How dangerous is that?
(13:45) Let's close with the third theme: fiscal policy is still loose in many places. The most intriguing twist is that Spain, long considered a fiscal problem child for Europe, now has a smaller budget deficit than Germany. Is politics playing a role here too.
(15:40) But Germany isn't alone in this. Countries everywhere are reshoring manufacturing, redesigning supply chains, and pouring capital into energy, defence, and infrastructure.
(17:01) Which brings us back to Japan where the credibility of the central bank is not the only thing being questioned. The bond and currency markets also have their eye on the fiscal experiment unfolding under the new Prime Minister Takaichi.
(19:39) A good reason to stay loose on the bars or for those of us who are part of the four-wheel crowd, check your airbags. Tracey, thank you as always…
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In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about what could be Googles' DeepSeek moment – the launch of Gemini 3. If it is everything that ChatGPT isn't, what does this do to the promises made by OpenAI? (1:03) Let's start this week with what I'm calling the Nvidia check your airbags moment because the last fortnight has been incredibly volatile in markets. Whilst you are not alarmed by this you have been telling clients to check their airbags. (3:20) How has the narrative around AI changed? We hear a lot about the size of capital spending budgets from the likes of Nvidia and Microsoft etc but government seem to view it as more a national security priority. (6:29) I hear what you are saying – Gemini 3 does seem impressive. But why did this negatively affect the share price for Nvidia? Can't Nvidia supply chips to Google as easily as it does to OpenAI? (9:21) Let's move to the second theme of the week: monetary policy is becoming more challenging. Just when we had the fog of tariffs and the uncertainty of the government shutdown lifting, we now have less conviction in the path of monetary policy. (12:25) How dangerous is that? (13:45) Let's close with the third theme: fiscal policy is still loose in many places. The most intriguing twist is that Spain, long considered a fiscal problem child for Europe, now has a smaller budget deficit than Germany. Is politics playing a role here too. (15:40) But Germany isn't alone in this. Countries everywhere are reshoring manufacturing, redesigning supply chains, and pouring capital into energy, defence, and infrastructure. (17:01) Which brings us back to Japan where the credibility of the central bank is not the only thing being questioned. The bond and currency markets also have their eye on the fiscal experiment unfolding under the new Prime Minister Takaichi. (19:39) A good reason to stay loose on the bars or for those of us who are part of the four-wheel crowd, check your airbags. Tracey, thank you as always…