Reformed Millennials - Learn Earn and Invest

In a healthy bull market, you don't usually see people rushing to buy toothpaste and condom stocks. But right now, Consumer Staples are crushing the S&P 500, and Financials are breaking down. The "tape" is guilty until proven innocent—and Mark Carney just gave us the verdict on Canada's future, too. Market Update📈📉 The “Guilty” Tape The burden of proof has shifted. In a healthy bull market, you don’t usually see investors flocking to “boring” stocks like toothpaste and toilet paper. But that is exactly what is happening right now. * Consumer Staples (XLP) are up 6.5% year-to-date, crushing the S&P 500 (+1.5%). * Financials are lagging badly. When you look at the ratio of Financials vs. Consumer Staples, we just broke below key support levels from October. Why it matters: Markets don’t usually let “defensive” sectors lead unless smart money is worried about what comes next. As we said on the show: “In a market like this, the tape is guilty until proven innocent.” One more thing on the Dollar (USD): Don’t fear the strong dollar; respect it. The historical link between the USD and Energy is holding. If Energy is about to outperform (and the charts say it is), a strengthening dollar isn’t a headwind—it’s part of the regime shift. The crowded “short dollar / long metals” trade is looking very vulnerable. The USMCA “Sunset” Review With the July 1, 2026 deadline approaching, here is your cheat sheet on the most important trade deal in North America. 1. How the Renewal Works (The “Sunset Clause”) This isn’t a standard renegotiation. It is a mandatory check-in written into the deal to prevent it from becoming stale. * The Date: July 1, 2026 (The 6th Anniversary). * The Goal: All three nations (USA, Canada, Mexico) must confirm in writing they want to extend the deal for another 16 years (to 2042). * The Risk: If they don’t agree, the deal doesn’t die instantly. It enters a “year-to-year” purgatory where they must meet annually to fix issues. If nothing is fixed by 2036, the deal terminates. Business hates uncertainty, so a non-renewal in July could spook the markets. 2. What They Want (The Friction Points) 🇺🇸 The United States (The Enforcer) * China Backdoors: The U.S. is obsessed with preventing China from using Canada/Mexico as a side door to sneak goods into America tariff-free. Expect them to demand tighter “Rules of Origin,” especially for EVs and car parts. * Dairy Access: A classic grievance. They want the access to the Canadian dairy market they were promised, arguing Canada is using administrative loopholes to block them. * Labor Rights: Continued pressure on Mexico to ensure cheap labor isn’t undercutting American wages. 🇨🇦 Canada (The Defender) * Stability Above All: Canada’s economy relies on this deal. The #1 goal is to get that 16-year extension signed quickly to keep investment flowing. * Supply Management: We will shield our dairy and poultry farmers at all costs, likely trading other concessions to keep the Supply Management system alive. * Softwood Lumber: We will try to use this leverage to finally fix the timber tariff dispute, though it’s technically outside the USMCA. The Bottom Line: This July isn’t just a rubber stamp. With Carney’s “Rupture” speech setting the tone, Canada is trying to pivot to new partners while desperately trying to keep the American door open. It’s a balancing act that will define our economy for the next decade. Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙 Carney Speaks to Davos: Elon: Best Links of The Week🔮 * “OpenAI is reportedly asking a high price to advertise on ChatGPT, around $60 per 1,000 views, or triple what ads on Meta’s platform usually cost, according to The Information. Despite the higher price, OpenAI won’t be offering advertisers the same level of detailed information that Google and Meta do, such as whether users took any action in response to seeing an ad on ChatGPT, like making a purchase. Early advertisers on ChatGPT will only get “high-level” data on how their ads perform, like total ad views or total clicks.” Source: The Verge * “The Trump administration is proposing a .09% average payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, significantly below Wall Street’s roughly 4% to 6% expectations. The proposal also includes eliminating payments tied to diagnoses from insurer medical chart reviews not linked to specific medical visits, reducing the 2027 payment rate by 1.53 percentage points. Overall payments are projected to increase by 2.54% for 2027, combining the proposed rate changes with an additional 2.45% from underlying billing trends.” Source: WSJ * “Nvidia invested an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave, a cloud computing firm and key customer, to speed up an effort to add more than 5 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by 2030. As part of the collaboration, CoreWeave will be among the first to deploy forthcoming Nvidia products, including storage systems and a new central processing unit, or CPU, called Vera. The investment has sparked concerns about circular financing deals that have lifted valuations of AI companies and fueled concerns about a bubble.” Source: Bloomberg * “Elon Musk’s rocket maker SpaceX is lining up four Wall Street investment banks for leading roles on a blockbuster initial public offering, which is likely to be the world’s largest ever new listing. SpaceX executives have held meetings with bankers from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley in recent weeks as the company prepares for an IPO as soon as this year.” Source: FT * “European Union lawmakers are expected to vote on ratifying the bloc’s trade deal with the US after President Donald Trump walked back his latest threat to impose tariffs on European allies. The trade deal’s ratification process was suspended due to Trump’s “coercive” threats, but was restarted after he said he wouldn’t impose the levies. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said the reversal was enough to justify voting on the measure, which could have a preliminary vote in the coming days.” Source: Bloomberg This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com