The Tom Dupree Show

The tech sector faced dramatic volatility this week as AI developments triggered major selloffs across software and hyperscaler stocks. While Oracle dropped 16% in eight trading days and software companies lost over 22% year-to-date, a different story emerged for dividend-focused retirement portfolios built around quality companies. AI Disruption Triggers Tech Sector Turmoil The market experienced significant turbulence when Anthropic released new AI capabilities that simplified software replication for programmers. This development sent shockwaves through major tech companies including PayPal, Adobe, and Microsoft. As Mike Johnson explained, “The software sector just got their heads knocked off…year to date now it’s down 22%.” Amazon stock declined 7-8% after announcing $200 billion in capital expenditure plans. Combined with Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, and Alphabet, these hyperscalers plan to spend $600 billion—more than Germany and Mexico’s spending budgets combined. Markets that celebrated Oracle’s $300 billion open AI investment with a 40% single-day stock jump last summer now react with skepticism to similar announcements. The Market’s Contradictory Signals on Tech Investment Tom Dupree observed this fundamental shift: “Back in June or July when Oracle said they were gonna invest 300 billion in open AI and the stock went up 40% in a day…now when all these hyperscalers are announcing these huge investments, the market’s like, Nope, sorry, we gotta see proof.” This creates opportunities in “picks and shovels” companies that supply infrastructure for AI development. James Dupree noted the disconnect: “It’s bonkers that they’re selling off those names. When these companies announced that they’re gonna invest more money, that’s obviously good for the picks and shovels.” Quality Dividend Stocks Deliver Steady Returns While tech volatility dominated headlines, personalized investment management portfolios focused on dividend-paying quality companies produced different results: Verizon: Up 17% year-to-date from total returns, jumping nearly 12% in a single Friday session Chevron: Similar 17% gains demonstrating energy sector strength ConAgra: 8% total return combining 4-5% price appreciation plus dividend income since late October purchase Nestlé: Strong food sector performance during market uncertainty Mike Johnson emphasized the strategy’s foundation: “In a risk-off market…what the market’s looking for is quality. Balance sheet quality, cash flow quality, lower leverage, more predictability in revenues.” Why Separately Managed Accounts Outperform Packaged Products Tom Dupree explained their portfolio construction philosophy: “The way we put that philosophy together was we didn’t wanna sell annuities and we didn’t wanna buy bonds, so we bought stocks that paid dividends like a bond and raise their dividends over time.” This approach offers critical advantages over mutual funds and other packaged products. During the 2008 financial crisis, some closed-end funds with embedded leverage faced conflicts of interest. As Mike Johnson noted, “If portfolio managers sold everything in the portfolio before things got really bad, that means the portfolio manager’s out of a job…inevitably you have those conflicts of interest within package products that raise their head at the worst possible time.” Separately managed accounts provide: Direct ownership of individual securities Complete transparency on holdings and fees Dynamic portfolio management without commingling with other investors No embedded conflicts of interest Lower overall costs without packaging fees Learn more about the investment philosophy behind this approach. Income-Focused Investing for Retirement Security The cornerstone of retirement portfolio management centers on reliable income generation. Mike Johnson described the strategy: “The price appreciation, everybody’s happy when prices are going up. But the cornerstone of our portfolio is the income.” This philosophy differs fundamentally from buying dividend aristocrat indexes. Mike explained: “There’s a difference between the analysis and the holdings that we have in the portfolio versus buying the dividend aristocrats…What that doesn’t take into account is current valuation.” Attractive valuations on overlooked companies like Verizon and Chevron created opportunities for both income and price appreciation. “For retirement investors, you find the safety net, if you will, of the income, and then the price appreciation over time,” Mike noted. Dynamic Portfolio Management Adapts to Market Conditions Active management allows response to changing market conditions. When quality company stock prices decline 20% without fundamental business changes, the portfolio team may add to positions. Tom Dupree clarified: “We own it for a long time, but it’s not just a buy and hold situation…the dynamic nature of the portfolio has to square up with the dynamic nature of retirement.” This includes tax-efficient strategies like: Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): Transfer IRA funds directly to charities without reporting as taxable income Roth Conversions: Situational strategies for specific client circumstances Strategic Rebalancing: Taking profits on winners and adding to undervalued positions Explore more insights in the market commentary archive. Key Takeaways for Retirement Investors Software sector vulnerabilities exposed by AI developments demonstrate tech concentration risks Quality dividend-paying companies provide downside protection during market volatility Separately managed accounts offer transparency and control unavailable in packaged products Income generation creates stability regardless of price fluctuations Dynamic management adapts portfolios to both market conditions and retirement needs Current valuations matter more than historical dividend aristocrat status Questions About Your Retirement Portfolio? Tom Dupree summarized the value proposition: “The thing about investing that’s so hard is obviously the emotions. You see a stock going up that you already own a little bit of, and you’re like, I should add to this, which is the worst thing you can do while it’s going up. And then you see a stock going down that you own and you’re like, well, I should probably sell this stock.” Professional portfolio management removes emotional decision-making while maintaining the transparency and control investors need for retirement security. If you don’t know what you own in your portfolio, you need to. Schedule a complimentary portfolio analysis with Dupree Financial Group. Call (859) 233-0400 to speak directly with portfolio managers—not assigned investment counselors—about your retirement strategy. Frequently Asked Questions Q: How does dividend investing protect against tech sector volatility? Dividend-paying quality companies in defensive sectors like telecommunications, energy, and consumer staples provide consistent income regardless of tech stock fluctuations. Companies like Verizon and Chevron demonstrated 17% year-to-date returns while software stocks declined 22%. Q: What’s the difference between separately managed accounts and mutual funds? Separately managed accounts provide direct ownership of individual securities in your own brokerage account with complete transparency on holdings and fees. Mutual funds commingle investor assets and may contain embedded conflicts of interest that surface during market stress. Q: How do portfolio managers decide when to add to existing positions? When quality company stock prices decline 20% without fundamental business changes, the investment committee may add to positions. Valuations matter more than simply holding dividend aristocrats regardless of price. Q: Can I transfer retirement funds to charity without paying taxes? Yes, Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) allow direct IRA transfers to charities without reporting as taxable income. Age and annual amount restrictions apply—discuss your specific situation during a portfolio consultation. Q: Why are “picks and shovels” AI companies attractive despite hyperscaler selloffs? Infrastructure providers benefit when tech companies announce increased capital expenditure plans. Despite market selloffs, $600 billion in planned AI infrastructure spending creates revenue opportunities for equipment and component suppliers. The post Tech Stock Volatility Meets Dividend Investing: Why Quality Companies Still Win appeared first on Dupree Financial.