A Flawed Assumption in Trump's Peace Plan
Tue Dec 23 2025
In this episode, Dr. Mike Armour examines what he sees as a major miscalculation at the heart of the Trump Administration’s proposed peace plan for the Russia‑Ukraine war.
Drawing on years of firsthand experience in both nations, he challenges a prevailing assumption in the U.S. negotiating strategy.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, he managed widespread humanitarian efforts in both Russia and Ukraine. His organization's largest operations center was located in Donbas, the primary battlefield of the war.
On the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion, he used this podcast to predict that Ukraine would mount a fierce and unexpectedly effective resistance, contrary to global expectations of a rapid Russian victory.
Time proved that prediction correct. Now, as new peace proposals circulate among world leaders, he warns that another flawed assumption may once again lead policymakers astray.
Some of their peace proposals seem to be guided by a belief that Russian‑speaking Ukrainians are naturally aligned with Moscow. In this episode Dr. Armour explains why this assumption is not only inaccurate, but dangerously misleading.
He uses this development as a case study in strategic blind spots—how leaders, even at the highest levels, can make consequential decisions based on incomplete or oversimplified assumptions that later prove costly.
A PDF transcript of this episode is available at https://www.upsizeyourleadership/transcripts/2511-flawed-assumption.pdf.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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In this episode, Dr. Mike Armour examines what he sees as a major miscalculation at the heart of the Trump Administration’s proposed peace plan for the Russia‑Ukraine war. Drawing on years of firsthand experience in both nations, he challenges a prevailing assumption in the U.S. negotiating strategy. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, he managed widespread humanitarian efforts in both Russia and Ukraine. His organization's largest operations center was located in Donbas, the primary battlefield of the war. On the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion, he used this podcast to predict that Ukraine would mount a fierce and unexpectedly effective resistance, contrary to global expectations of a rapid Russian victory. Time proved that prediction correct. Now, as new peace proposals circulate among world leaders, he warns that another flawed assumption may once again lead policymakers astray. Some of their peace proposals seem to be guided by a belief that Russian‑speaking Ukrainians are naturally aligned with Moscow. In this episode Dr. Armour explains why this assumption is not only inaccurate, but dangerously misleading. He uses this development as a case study in strategic blind spots—how leaders, even at the highest levels, can make consequential decisions based on incomplete or oversimplified assumptions that later prove costly. A PDF transcript of this episode is available at https://www.upsizeyourleadership/transcripts/2511-flawed-assumption.pdf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices