Reading Signals In A Noisy Market with Daniel Nikic
Wed Feb 04 2026
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Markets aren’t just noisy; they’re rewiring in real time. We sit down with global investment researcher Daniel Nikic to decode what founders should actually track, how to turn headlines into decisions, and why the most resilient companies pick problems that will matter for the next five to ten years. If you’ve felt overwhelmed by AI hype, shifting supply chains, and choppy investor sentiment, this is your field guide to clarity.
We start with the investor lens: what problem are you solving and how durable is it? Daniel shares how he reads signals from trade flows, raw goods, and energy dynamics to spot second-order effects before they hit revenue. From Detroit’s auto halo to fertilizer shocks tied to war, he shows how “faraway” events change your cost structure and demand curves. The playbook is simple and sharp: track a few leading indicators that map to your model, define thresholds, and pre-decide your moves so you act fast when the line gets crossed.
AI takes center stage as leverage, not oracle. Daniel frames today’s tools as junior analysts that excel at scraping, summarizing, and formatting secondary research. The win is speed; the risk is unexamined bias and hallucinations. We dig into human-in-the-loop workflows, practical use cases for founders (market mapping, interview synthesis, competitor baselines), and why experience turns data into insight. Expect clear guidance on when to trust the model, when to audit, and how to keep outputs actionable.
We also hit the founder operating system: persistence through rejection, pivoting without drama, and reputation as a compounding asset. With limited resources, you’ll hear how to use free pilots and testimonials to compress trust and lower CAC. On the macro map, Daniel spotlights the Middle East’s surge in entrepreneurship and LP capital, along with America’s ongoing edge in innovation. Looking ahead, we explore a bold trendline: smaller teams powered by AI, building faster with tighter focus and sharper distribution.
Enjoy the conversation. If it sparks an idea, share it with a builder who needs it, and subscribe for more unfiltered, practical strategies. Got a takeaway or a challenge to our view? Drop us a note—we’d love to hear your signal.
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Send us a text Markets aren’t just noisy; they’re rewiring in real time. We sit down with global investment researcher Daniel Nikic to decode what founders should actually track, how to turn headlines into decisions, and why the most resilient companies pick problems that will matter for the next five to ten years. If you’ve felt overwhelmed by AI hype, shifting supply chains, and choppy investor sentiment, this is your field guide to clarity. We start with the investor lens: what problem are you solving and how durable is it? Daniel shares how he reads signals from trade flows, raw goods, and energy dynamics to spot second-order effects before they hit revenue. From Detroit’s auto halo to fertilizer shocks tied to war, he shows how “faraway” events change your cost structure and demand curves. The playbook is simple and sharp: track a few leading indicators that map to your model, define thresholds, and pre-decide your moves so you act fast when the line gets crossed. AI takes center stage as leverage, not oracle. Daniel frames today’s tools as junior analysts that excel at scraping, summarizing, and formatting secondary research. The win is speed; the risk is unexamined bias and hallucinations. We dig into human-in-the-loop workflows, practical use cases for founders (market mapping, interview synthesis, competitor baselines), and why experience turns data into insight. Expect clear guidance on when to trust the model, when to audit, and how to keep outputs actionable. We also hit the founder operating system: persistence through rejection, pivoting without drama, and reputation as a compounding asset. With limited resources, you’ll hear how to use free pilots and testimonials to compress trust and lower CAC. On the macro map, Daniel spotlights the Middle East’s surge in entrepreneurship and LP capital, along with America’s ongoing edge in innovation. Looking ahead, we explore a bold trendline: smaller teams powered by AI, building faster with tighter focus and sharper distribution. Enjoy the conversation. If it sparks an idea, share it with a builder who needs it, and subscribe for more unfiltered, practical strategies. Got a takeaway or a challenge to our view? Drop us a note—we’d love to hear your signal. Support the show