Embracing Uncertainty: A Conversation with Futurist Tamar Kasriel
Wed Jan 07 2026
Tamar Kasriel is a futurist and author of Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain.
In this conversation, Tamar traces her unconventional path, from studying history at Oxford to teaching English in rural Japan to advising some of the world's biggest brands on what's coming next. Along the way, she explains why the skills she learned studying historiography (the study of how history is written) are surprisingly useful in an age of disinformation, and why the goal of futures work isn't prediction. It's readiness.
We explore why multiple truths can coexist, why pessimism has no predictive advantage, and why agency, not certainty, is what leaders actually need right now.
This is Part One of two conversations. In Part Two, we'll dive deeper into the ideas in Tamar's book.
Timecodes
00:00 Introduction
02:00 From Oxford to Japan: An unplanned path
08:00 Why multiple truths can coexist
13:00 Retail as "the sharp end of consumption"
21:00 Selfridges: From icon to cautionary tale
28:00 "It's not about being right, it's about being ready"
37:00 How scenario planning saved supermarkets in COVID
44:00 Herman Kahn and the origins of scenario planning
47:00 Why the book is called "Could"
50:00 "Pessimism has no predictive advantage"
55:00 Agency comes with accountability
Socials
Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/tamarkasriel/
Website https://www.tamarkasriel.com/
Links
Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Tamar Kasriel is a futurist and author of Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain. In this conversation, Tamar traces her unconventional path, from studying history at Oxford to teaching English in rural Japan to advising some of the world's biggest brands on what's coming next. Along the way, she explains why the skills she learned studying historiography (the study of how history is written) are surprisingly useful in an age of disinformation, and why the goal of futures work isn't prediction. It's readiness. We explore why multiple truths can coexist, why pessimism has no predictive advantage, and why agency, not certainty, is what leaders actually need right now. This is Part One of two conversations. In Part Two, we'll dive deeper into the ideas in Tamar's book. Timecodes 00:00 Introduction 02:00 From Oxford to Japan: An unplanned path 08:00 Why multiple truths can coexist 13:00 Retail as "the sharp end of consumption" 21:00 Selfridges: From icon to cautionary tale 28:00 "It's not about being right, it's about being ready" 37:00 How scenario planning saved supermarkets in COVID 44:00 Herman Kahn and the origins of scenario planning 47:00 Why the book is called "Could" 50:00 "Pessimism has no predictive advantage" 55:00 Agency comes with accountability Socials Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/tamarkasriel/ Website https://www.tamarkasriel.com/ Links Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.